NewcastleWhat it takes to win on the Tapeta

Each winner's place in the field after 2f, at halfway, 2f out and 1f out, from the Race IQ positions. The thick bar is the winners; the thin bar under it is every runner, so a band winning more than its share is easy to see. This describes how races here were run, not what was known before the off.

Seconds behind the leader 2f out. The shaded band runs from the closest quarter of winners to the 9 in 10 mark. Lengths are a rough guide at about five to a second. Under it, the strike rate at each gap: the gold bar is the strike rate, the thin bar the share of all runners at that gap.

How fast each horse was going as it crossed the line: the house estimate (FS-EST-B1), worked out from its last two furlong times, since Race IQ times a horse over the last furlong, not at the post. Winners are the gold dot, the shaded band the middle half of winners; beaten horses (4th or worse) are the blue dot. In the race itself: a description of how races here were won, not a pre-race fact.

Strike rate by speed at the line

The gold bar is the strike rate in each band; the thin bar under it the share of all runners in it.

The winning zone: close enough and fast enough

Every timed runner placed by its gap to the leader 2f out (rows) and its Est. final mph (columns). Each cell is the strike rate there; the deeper the gold, the higher it is. Cells with under 20 runners are left plain and marked thin.

Every trip side by side

The median winner's Est. final mph at each trip (gold, with its figure), the middle half of winners (shaded) and the median beaten horse (blue).

The same speed read the way it can be on race day: each horse's own best two of its last six Est. final mph before the race, every run moved to here at this trip (the trip change on its own surface, then the track or surface change, measured on 2024-25 runs; the course fit's read). Three runs or more needed. Known for 2024-25 5,120 of 10,228 runners; 2026 2,813 of 3,333 runners. Tested in [CFIT-1] (26 Oct): it separated winners in both windows and ran close to its prices; nothing cleared the false-discovery check. A description, never a selection.

Races here split into thirds by how fast they went early (quick, even, steady), then the strike rate of each running position in each kind of race. Green cells won more than their prices said (A/E over 1), red fewer; the stronger the colour, the bigger the gap. Grey cells are thin.

From the Race IQ tracking: top speed and stride length; time to reach 20 mph (lower is quicker away); finishing speed as a % of the horse's own race average; the last two furlongs in mph (450 divided by the furlong time); and Est. final mph at the line (in gold). Medians, in the race itself.

Each horse's own figures from its last timed run anywhere before the race day, ranked against the other runners' last timed runs. Known before the off. A field needs four or more runners with a timed run.

The same measures from the race itself: how often the horse that was best on each one won. A description of the race, not a pre-race fact.

The share of rivals each horse beat (every runner counts, not just the winner; 50% = no edge), by where it was drawn and how big the field was: green beat more than half, red fewer, the stronger the colour the bigger the gap; grey is thin. Then every stall in fields of 8 or more. The method follows Adrian Massey's draw pages, on our own races from 2024.

Draw and early position together

Each stall third (rows), split by where the horse was after 2f (columns): strike rate, with the cell green when it won more than its prices said (A/E over 1) and red when fewer; grey is thin. Where it was after 2f is from the race itself, so this shows how the draw and the early position combine, not a pre-race fact.

Each calendar month, every year from 2024 pooled: how many winners and how many runners were leading or in the front third 2f out (gold and blue bars, %), the A/E of those front runners (green or red when the whole interval is clear of 1.00), and the winners' median Est. final mph (the line). Then each quarter in turn, to see whether the track has changed. In the race itself: a description.

The 30 highest-ranked yards and riders on the FormLab all-weather ranking (HODGE-2, in pounds, as the Jockey ranking page; fit to 2026-10-27) that have had 10 or more runs here, each with its record here. The ranking is over every all-weather race in Britain, not this course; set against past races here it is a description, not what was known before each race. Green or red only when the whole interval is clear of 1.00 on 20 or more runs and 5 or more expected wins. Sires: those with 30 or more runs here.